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"Apocalyptic volcanic super eruption which could DESTROY civilisation is closer than we thought, say experts" (Daily Mail)

School of Mathematics Colloquium, University of Bristol

Abstract
Hazards tend to be summarized in terms of their frequency/magnitude curve. For explosive volcanic eruptions, a supereruption at the top end of the magnitude range is large enough to return us to a "pre-civilisation state", but even a large eruption poses a serious hazard for a country. Inferring the global frequency/magnitude curve from the volcanic record is complicated, because the record is unreliable going back more than a few hundred years. In this talk I will look at the maths of the frequency/magnitude curve, show and discuss the curve we fitted for large explosive volcanic eruptions, and describe the response of the media to our results.

Earlier Event: October 30
Global screening for volcanic risk
Later Event: March 12
What is the reasonable worst case?